Toronto Housing Bubble

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Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby DanceHall » Sun Mar 27, 2016 6:43 am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzhHWtIG5f0[/url]

How can people in cities like Toronto and Vancouver afford to take on these huge mortgages? Are the wives forcing their husbands to sign that mortgage contract? I saw an Advertisement from a financial institution about 2.45% mortgage rates in Toronto, but house prices average 650,000 and condos start from $250,000.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby Orangutan » Sun Mar 27, 2016 7:50 am

Canada, Australia and New Zealand are in the top ranks of the developed world’s most overpriced housing markets, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Homes in Canada are the most expensive, being 63 percent overvalued, the bank said in a survey ranking Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries’ markets. The measure reaches 56 percent in New Zealand, the second-most priciest, 53 percent in Belgium and 49 percent in Australia.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... tsche-bank

There will have to be a market correction eventually and it won't be pretty. A lot of working class people also earn their living in construction and renovation too.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby Hoser » Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:11 am

How can they afford those mortgages? Well, they can't really. But how they manage to get into them:

- Help with the down payment thanks to the bank of Mom and Dad. (Canadians have a fetish for real estate and many parents think their kids *must* own a home.)

- Lax lending standards. Banks take no risk, since it's covered by CMHC, so they will loan to anyone who can fog a mirror. Mortgage brokers will help you bullshit your financial numbers to get approved.

- Illegal apartments to help with the mortgage payment.

- Really fucking long mortgage terms so the monthly payment is lower. Many people will be heading into retirement still paying the thing off.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby EddieS » Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:23 am

Its definitely getting way out of hand in capital cities and regional centres in Australia. Only outer suburbs are barely affordable for average income couples. Its all artificially inflated by banks for many decades now. There must surely be a correction. But I wouldn't hold my breath. Smaller economies can get away with shit like this for much longer than places like the USA.

Meanwhile, the working class has to commute for hours per day, burn income on exorbitant rents just to stay in a pointless rat race. I expect more of a gradual decline as the productive class get sick of being circus animals, spiraling food and energy prices, and move to country areas in order to spend less and work less. Its already happening. Little communities and small farms in rural areas are already popping up all over the place, and have been for some time. Older dying communities are starting to revive to a limited degree. Its almost another hippy type era arising in some places. The cycle is turning over. Large industrial agriculture and resource mining is suffering badly. Failing gradually. Dying by a thousand cuts as the needy government and welfare takes its toll.

A harsh correction is still entirely possible. But it will come off the back of other big events that bring financial institutions to their knees.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby Orangutan » Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:33 am

EddieS wrote:A harsh correction is still entirely possible. But it will come off the back of other big events that bring financial institutions to their knees.


I think it will happen sooner rather than later since the whole global economy is slowing down. Resource rich countries have been exporting to China for some years now, but China's stock market is pasted over with makeshift bandages and they're planning now for decreased economic growth. The regime is also clamping down finally on money transfers to foreign countries, which means real estate speculation in Australia and elsewhere is becoming difficult for Chinese citizens unless their money is already outside China.

If Trump gets elected he might also follow through with his promise to actively restore jobs in the US from China, which could lead to trade issues with China.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby EddieS » Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:21 pm

I think it will happen sooner rather than later since the whole global economy is slowing down. Resource rich countries have been exporting to China for some years now, but China's stock market is pasted over with makeshift bandages and they're planning now for decreased economic growth. The regime is also clamping down finally on money transfers to foreign countries, which means real estate speculation in Australia and elsewhere is becoming difficult for Chinese citizens unless their money is already outside China.

If Trump gets elected he might also follow through with his promise to actively restore jobs in the US from China, which could lead to trade issues with China.




Resource dependant countries like aust are particularly at risk. But I am not prepared to underestimate the creative accounting abilities of the financial institutions and their govt bedfellows/bitches. The economy may tank. But its not in itself enough on its own to crash real estate markets here imo. The collusion is so ingrained. Its this that is the real poison imo. Without total, rapid euthanasia of the cancer that the banking, finance and share market sector has become, the gradual crawl will keep going slowly. They are going to bleed the workers for every last drop. Most aren't in a position, or have the courage to quickly drop their bundle imo.

We are already seeing this creative accounting and diversification hitting its stride. With massive not for profit church based organisations being sold vast amounts of public housing and land on the cheap. Its earmarked for low income housing and associated services. Which takes a percentage of whatever wage, or dole the occupant can muster. All of this is spawning its own service industry to look after, medicate, cook for, repair blocked toilets and mow the lawns of the degenerate, drug addicted, and elderly in poverty. The largest real estar holder in Australia behind the govt, is a non for profit Christian organisation. Hardly anyone knows this. The welfare industry is the next great hope to keep the life support powered on. The real last ditch effort will be to fire up the big war machines. But will there be anyone prepared to man them?

The makeshift bandages as you say, are leaking pus, and turning gangrene. But without the mass speedy exodus of the productive class. The imaginary numbers can be made to keep stumbling along. I agree, the withdrawal of China into survival mode is almost assured. Have they past the point where they can go back to an agrarian society that required very little outside input? I really don't know. But if they could rapidly withdraw, I think they would. They are in a very precarious position, as you say.

I think there is more to it all than a slow down. The optimist in me thinks it is an accelerated behavioural evolution on a global scale. Totally not quantifiable of course. I really do hope it happens sooner. I really do. But I have zero faith in politics, govt, fake markets etc... I am very cynical and jaded also.

We live in very interesting times. Our lifetime will reveal some far more amazing events than have already come to pass I think.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby TDG » Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:50 pm

This is precisely why I'm still renting and I'm pretty sure it's a major reason why other first time buyers are still doing the same.

Most of us know house prices are over valued and know of at least one person who got fucked on their house once the crash happened in 08
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby WeeZul » Sun Mar 27, 2016 5:59 pm

TDG wrote:This is precisely why I'm still renting and I'm pretty sure it's a major reason why other first time buyers are still doing the same.

Most of us know house prices are over valued and know of at least one person who got fucked on their house once the crash happened in 08


Right here with you, TDG.

I'm sitting in the middle of another likely bubble - Silicon Valley. A couple years ago rents started rising again, and housing prices shot right back up to pre-08 levels. I think some places are going even higher now. It's utterly insane to watch.

I'd love to own a home. Not here, but someplace outside of a suburb where there's still trees and quiet. Here, the only thing you can do is rent. Even the land to plunk down a tiny house would cost over $100K.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby DanceHall » Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:07 pm

House prices in Toronto increase on average by $50,000 every six months for the past 5 years.
House prices in Vancouver increase so much that a 80X80 lot sells for at least 2 million dollars. It's insane, but the wifey wants the man to take on a million dollar mortgage in any case. Don't forget the SUVs and $40,000 credit card applications! Total slavery.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby G001 » Tue May 03, 2016 1:01 am

The Sydney housing bubble is ridiculous. Houses that would have gone for $400,000 in 2007 are now hitting the million dollar mark. A 500m2 block of land 50km out of Sydney is $500,000, then you need to add another $300,000 for the house on top. Brisbane has similar houses for half the price.

The regional centres are much cheaper than Sydney but don't represent great value for those from the other capitals.

It doesn't help that most councils have minimum sizes for new houses. 150m2 (excl. garages) is the minimum, where three bedroom post war houses barely got up to 100m2, most were 75-90m2.

However, I do not believe that there will be a housing bubble pop, rather the trend will flatline, having little to no capital growth, but yields will improve as rents meet wages growth. I also see 50 year mortgages being entirely possible, along with lower rates (say 1-2 pct). Similar to Japan.

The low to medium end of the market will be where the market will move the most.
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby DanceHall » Tue May 31, 2016 5:23 pm

G001 wrote:The Sydney housing bubble is ridiculous. Houses that would have gone for $400,000 in 2007 are now hitting the million dollar mark. A 500m2 block of land 50km out of Sydney is $500,000, then you need to add another $300,000 for the house on top. Brisbane has similar houses for half the price.

The regional centres are much cheaper than Sydney but don't represent great value for those from the other capitals.

It doesn't help that most councils have minimum sizes for new houses. 150m2 (excl. garages) is the minimum, where three bedroom post war houses barely got up to 100m2, most were 75-90m2.

However, I do not believe that there will be a housing bubble pop, rather the trend will flatline, having little to no capital growth, but yields will improve as rents meet wages growth. I also see 50 year mortgages being entirely possible, along with lower rates (say 1-2 pct). Similar to Japan.

The low to medium end of the market will be where the market will move the most.


Aren't those places in OZ notorious for militant feminazism? What a co-incidence! :?:
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby Entreri » Tue May 31, 2016 8:03 pm

Hoser wrote:How can they afford those mortgages? Well, they can't really. But how they manage to get into them:

- Help with the down payment thanks to the bank of Mom and Dad. (Canadians have a fetish for real estate and many parents think their kids *must* own a home.)

- Lax lending standards. Banks take no risk, since it's covered by CMHC, so they will loan to anyone who can fog a mirror. Mortgage brokers will help you bullshit your financial numbers to get approved.

- Illegal apartments to help with the mortgage payment.

- Really fucking long mortgage terms so the monthly payment is lower. Many people will be heading into retirement still paying the thing off.


Something seems familiar about all that. Something I can't quite put my finger on....
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Re: Toronto Housing Bubble

Postby G001 » Tue May 31, 2016 9:57 pm

DanceHall wrote:
G001 wrote:The Sydney housing bubble is ridiculous. Houses that would have gone for $400,000 in 2007 are now hitting the million dollar mark. A 500m2 block of land 50km out of Sydney is $500,000, then you need to add another $300,000 for the house on top. Brisbane has similar houses for half the price.

The regional centres are much cheaper than Sydney but don't represent great value for those from the other capitals.

It doesn't help that most councils have minimum sizes for new houses. 150m2 (excl. garages) is the minimum, where three bedroom post war houses barely got up to 100m2, most were 75-90m2.

However, I do not believe that there will be a housing bubble pop, rather the trend will flatline, having little to no capital growth, but yields will improve as rents meet wages growth. I also see 50 year mortgages being entirely possible, along with lower rates (say 1-2 pct). Similar to Japan.

The low to medium end of the market will be where the market will move the most.


Aren't those places in OZ notorious for militant feminazism? What a co-incidence! :?:


Apart from the inner south/inner south west of Sydney, most of Sydney is somewhat socially conservative. Alan Jones (a famous conservative talkback host) has the most popular morning radio slot even beating Top 40 stations, and his show is on an AM station.

Melbourne is more SJW generally than Sydney.
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